That is a personal belief not doctrine. It seems to come from a single verse taken out of context. In the context of the epistle it is Paul speaking to the Thessalonians about the a/c. If we look at 1 Thessalonians 5:1-2 But of the times and the seasons, brethren, ye have no need that I write unto you. For yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so cometh as a thief in the night. If we compare that to the verse you give 2 Thessalonians 2:3 but expanded to be more in context we see Now we beseech you, brethren, by the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ, and by our gathering together unto him, That ye be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled, neither by spirit, nor by word, nor by letter as from us, as that the day of Christ is at hand. Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come , except there come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition.
It would appear that Paul is contradicting himself in two different epistles. That would imply that the Bible is contradictory if we follow that logic to its conclusion. Yet we know that scripture is not contradictory. In fact we used scripture to support scripture for is all Truth.
It is appropriate you mention examine the context. In seeing that we have in two different letters something that appears to be a contradiction and if we know that can’t be then we have to find out what is going on. The key seems to be a phrase we know as “the day of the Lord.” It is used both letters but does it mean the same in both?
Lets look at a terminology you would be familiar with, “fall in.” You would know it at one time as a command for soldiers to stop lolly gagging and get into formation. We all would also know it to mean something or someone fell or will fall literally into something such a child on a small pier might fall in the lake. So too is true of the term “day of the Lord.” It can mean a literal day or it can mean a period of time. But which means which in the two epistles?
We are fortunate to have book titles provided in the Bible that is a title referring to the subject matter of that particular book. So as we look at that to get an overall idea of what we will be reading about we see that in 1 Thessalonians the title is “The Day of the Lord,” and in 2 Thessalonians it is “Man of Lawlessness.” Well that does not do a lot to clear up our understanding but it gives us an idea. We can be reasonably assured that in 2 Thessalonians any mention of “the day of the Lord” is likely in reference to the a/c since “man of lawlessness” is one of several desciptors given to the a/c. So if we look closely at the verse you cited and the surrounding verses to ensure we fully understand what the subject is we find " 1) Now we beseech you, brethren, by the coming of our Lord Jesus Christ, and by our gathering together unto him, (emphasis mine) 2)That ye be not soon shaken in mind, or be troubled, neither by spirit, nor by word, nor by letter as from us, as that the day of Christ is at hand(emphasis mine). 3) Let no man deceive you by any means: for that day shall not come , except there come a falling away first, and that man of sin be revealed, the son of perdition." So as we look at the title Man of Lawlessness we know the theme of the epistle is about the a/c. But then there are a number of references to the Rapture even here. We see the menitoning of the
'gathering together unto Him" as well as "except there be a falling away first. Both are references to a time when the dead in Christ and those alive are gathered to be with Christ in the air in the twinkling of an eye. Finally it is added at the end the revealing of the man of sin be revealed the son of perdition. These are all events that have to happen before the day of the Lord. So it is safe to say this epistle explains what we now know as the Book of Revelation which was not written at the time of those epistles. So it was unknown to Paul or the Thessalonians there was more to the picture than they could possibly know. But now we have the extra information that helps us clarify better which “day of the Lord” is which. It is now clear that the “day of the Lord” in 2 Thessalonians refers to the 7 year Tribulation period.
Since the terminology “a gathering” is clear on its face that leaves this “falling away.” Only one thing to do there and that is go back to the original text because it is probably an idiom that does not have a good easy to understand translation into English. Looking into the Greek word from which we get those words “falling away” it is " apostasia" from which we get the word “apocalypse.” Mention that word to most people today Christians and non Christians alike they will tell you it refers to a time of great desctruction not necessarily a single day but a time when events are so bad that destruction starts runs unabated till the whole of the world is destroyed which implies a time period as opposed to a single day.
Now if we look to 1 Thessalonians we have the book title, “The Day of the Lord.” Oops that is a little ambiguous given our study but thankfully we have the rest of the book to read to clear that up. And sure enough it shows up in the second verse. So now we can cross reference with the Greek word from which it was translated and we find the word, " kyrios," means in the Greek 1. he to whom a person or thing belongs, about which he has power of deciding; master, lord, 2. 1. this title is given to: God, the Messiah. So we can literally rewrite the verse without losing or changing the meaning as, For yourselves know perfectly that the Messiah cometh as a thief in the night. And that right there contradicts what you believe that Jesus will come not only as the conquering King but also as a thief in the night. It also does us well to note there are other references to a thief in the night such as 2 Peter 3:10 “But the day of the Lord will come as a thief in the night.” Again the term “day of the Lord” translates from kyrios. Also again we have Peter writing before the book of Revelation was penned by John on Patmos. In both cases it is safe to say they were looking from a distance at the return of Jesus but neither of them could see there were two times He will come, once in the air and once literally to step foot on the mount. Neither Peter or Paul were in a position to see a time frame in between both comings. It is not unlike the first disporia came in two phases, so too the return of Jesus comes in two phases. First phase is the gathering of the church both dead and alive at that time. The second phase is physical return of Jesus to earth to begin His reign for a 1000 years as king. Of the first phase Jesus only comes in the air and only those that are His will see him at that time. In the second phase the whole of the world that is alive as few as that may be will all see him.
That leaves us with your opening statement, “…the Rapture will not take believers by surprise. It will not be unexpected.” Phase one has no prerequisite attached to it and that is reiterated a number of times in scripture. As such it can happen at any time. No specific events have to precede it. On the other hand it is an event that we are told has to happen prior to the revealing of the son of perdition. It and of itself is a sign of the Tribulation period starting.
Finally we have some supporting evidence to the Rapture being a stand alone event without prerquisite events happening first. We can find that Luke 21:28 And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh. This statement comes after the listing of the signs of the end of the age which appear not only during the Tribulation but leading up to it. The very fact that we are to lift our heads and look up implies we are looking for Jesus in the air not on the ground. That would infer the Rapture event is near. Yet in Mathew 24:36 But of that day and hour knoweth no man , no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only. Jesus makes it clear that it will be a surprise just like the coming of a theif in then night. Jesus’ own words support 1 Thessalonians implication of the Day of the Lord as a single event just like a theif coming hidden in the night by surprise.
So with that being said, it would be safe to assume you are a mid Trib or post trib believer for the Rapture event. But it does us well to remember from the Code of Conduct we have: This Forum is also a place to discuss and engage with the Bible Prophecy Updates and Bible Sermons delivered by JD Farag and the Calvary Chapel Kaneohe ministry. As such we know from the many updates that Pastor JD is an ardent believer in the Pre Trib Rapture as well as it being a stand alone event with no requirements needed for it to happen. It is his well and often stated view that no sign is stated as preceding the Rapture only that it will happen a time frame of the signs given by Jesus to the apostles. That time by all accounts is now which implies at any moment Jesus will descend to collect His bride. Even that reference portends a Rapture with no warning if we have studied enough to learn about the ancient Jewish wedding traditions. We do well to also note from the code of conduct: Members will show respect for this ministry as well as the leaders and members, even if they don’t agree with them.
You may find yourself at odds in your interpretation of scripture and that is fine. I am sure we all have hill we are willing to die on that does not go with all Pastor JD says. It is just that we don’t don’t get into arguments over it. Finally I am sure you are familiar with the UCMJ and whether you realized it or not at the time you agreed to it. The same is true here, to become a member of this forum you also agreed to the Code of Conduct and I pray you do not forget that.